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Item Information   Holdings       More by this author     Bertz, Robert G.     Subjects     Project management     Risk management     Teams in the workplace     Group decision making     Decision-making     MSEM Thesis.     Browse Catalog     by author:      Bertz, Robert G.       by title:      Risk analysis method...         MARC Display

Risk analysis methods for research and development projects / Robert G. Bertz. by Bertz, Robert G. Subjects Project management   Risk management   Teams in the workplace   Group decision making   Decision-making   MSEM Thesis. Description:  vii, 99 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm. Contents:  Thesis advisor: Gene A. Wright Committee members: Dr. Kimbal Nap, Dr. David Howell Project risk management -- Risk and uncertainty -- Knowledge gaps -- Decision-making models -- Cognitive decision-making strategies -- Heuristics and individual bias -- Group bias -- Sunk cost -- The scientific method -- Research and development -- Experience and judgment -- Probability -- Subjective probability -- Expected value -- Risk impact and importance -- Expected monetary value -- Event trees -- Monte Carlo analysis -- Practical risk analysis -- A: Sources of bias in individual decision-making - B: Sources of bias in group decision-making. This thesis focuses on techniques for improving risk analysis under extraordinary uncertainty. Practical methods for reducing bias in subjective probabilities are developed. These methods include mathematical approaches as well as recommendations for raising awareness to the potentially irrational trends in human thought. Typical metrics produced through risk analysis do not adequately address the reliability of probabilities based on subjective information. In this thesis, quantified knowledge gaps are introduced as an additional metric in risk analysis. Background for the topic is provided through an extensive review of project risk management, bias, heuristics, and decision-making theory. Techniques are developed for integrating objective and subjective information and presenting the results in terms of meaningful metrics. The methods presented here address problems with typical techniques by including metrics for knowledge gaps and expected monetary values. These values are presented to the response phase of project risk management in a matrix format known as a risk register. A two-stage risk register approach allows the risk manager to generate initial assessment, followed by a detailed analysis. The author integrates concepts from best practices in project risk management, cognitive decision theory, and statistics to compile a practical approach to risk analysis that is particularly suited to research and development projects.   Copy/Holding information Location Collection Call No. Status   Walter Schroeder Library Master's Theses AC805 .B473 2008 Available Add Copy to MyList Format: HTMLPlain textDelimited Subject:   Email to:

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