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Item Information   Holdings       More by this author     Khurshid, Amer.     Subjects     Construction industry -- Risk assessment     Engineering -- Risk assessment     MSEM Thesis.     Browse Catalog     by author:      Khurshid, Amer.       by title:      Analysis of risk in ...         MARC Display

Analysis of risk in projects and investments / by Amer Khurshid. by Khurshid, Amer. Subjects Construction industry -- Risk assessment   Engineering -- Risk assessment   MSEM Thesis. Description:  111 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm. Contents:  Advisor: Julian Piekarski. Committee members: Dr. George Lephardt, Joseph Papp, Gene Wright. Background in financial modeling -- Risk analysis fundamentals -- Risk analysis models -- Risk contingency planning for engineering & construction projects -- Risks in new products -- Conclusions and recommendations. This paper discusses the application of risk analysis to different project environments. Starting with the basics of risk analysis, it covers the requirements, benefits and tools of risk analysis. The concept of probability distribution and technical problems in running risk analysis, e.g. sampling, convergence, correlation, are discussed. The classical methods of risk analysis, which include sensitivity analysis, parametric method, decision trees, utility theory and management perceptions, are discussed with their advantages and shortcomings. Next the advanced methods of risk analysis, which include probability distribution, control interval and memory method and analytical hierarchy method, are discussed in detail. The middle part of the paper addresses risk analysis to complex engineering and construction projects and risks in new high technology products (the two types of projects which exhibit most risks). Same kind of analysis can be used for other types of projects with some exceptions perhaps. Application problems using @Risk software demonstrating hypercube sampling distribution is shown. The second application problem demonstrates application of analytical hierarchy process technique to construction project environment. The next part of the paper covers some special strategies to reduce risk for bringing new high technology products to the market. It focuses on research and development (R&D) and marketing risks associated with new technology-based products. For industrial products the concept of the technology life cycle in comparison to the conventional product life cycle is emphasized. The later part of the paper covers background needed for investments, profitability criteria, and cash flow analysis. The last part of the paper gives conclusions and recommendations from the thesis. This paper demonstrates the use of risk analysis using discounted cash flow profitability criteria for evaluating complex engineering and construction projects and new product development projects in the face of high uncertainty in the economic environment. The risks covered are primarily economic and financial. Risk contingency planning, various tools and techniques available for risk analysis and important strategies for dealing with risk investments are covered in detail. A professional software called @Risk is used as add on to Lotus to evaluate a risky situation.   Copy/Holding information Location Collection Call No. Status   Walter Schroeder Library Master's Theses AC805 .K48 1994 Available Add Copy to MyList Format: HTMLPlain textDelimited Subject:   Email to:

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