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Walter Schroeder Library, Milwaukee School of Engineering
Item Information
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More by this author
Hubball, John.
Subjects
Risk management -- Simulation methods
Project management
Monte Carlo method -- Computer programs.
Operations research
Computer programming and software
Technological innovations -- Economic aspects
MSE Project.
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Hubball, John.
by title:
Proposed project ris...
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Proposed project risk simulation for Westinghouse Electric Company / by John Hubball.
by
Hubball, John.
Subjects
Risk management -- Simulation methods
Project management
Monte Carlo method -- Computer programs.
Operations research
Computer programming and software
Technological innovations -- Economic aspects
MSE Project.
Description:
81 leaves : ill. ; 29 cm.
Contents:
Thesis advisor: Dr. Subha Kumpaty.
Committee members: Dr. Larry Fennigkoh, Gary Shimek.
Introduction -- Background -- Review of literature -- Software selection -- Model design -- Model verification -- Model output analysis -- Implementation plan -- Conclusion -- A: @Risk simulation model -- B: @Risk simulation report for total risk exposure -- C: @Risk simulation report for total award -- D: Risk Solver simulation model -- E: Risk Solver simulation report.
Because of their inherent complexity, including many possible variables and many possible outcomes, projects carried out by companies typically require that some amount of risk be assumed by involved parties prior to the project start. When a company begins to accumulate a large number of projects with high risk, it is important to compare the probability of project award to the probability of detrimental impact to the company. Westinghouse Electric Company currently analyzes risk on a per-project basis; however, the company has no method of tracking and comparing multiple projects and their associated risks. This report describes and explains a capstone design project, whose fundamental purpose was to identify an appropriate risk analysis software package, and then to use the software in conjunction with Microsoft Excel to design and to produce a project proposal risk analysis and risk management software simulation system, enabling Westinghouse to assess the individual and total risk associated with multiple projects.
Project risk analysis is typically complex, and as a result, Monte Carlo simulation is increasingly being employed to assess risk. The demends associated with Monte Carlo simulation invariably entail the use of risk analysis software. Three risk analysis software packages were selected for comparison, including @Risk, Risk Solver, and Crystal Ball. The software packages were compared, and both customer and functional requirements were identified, using quantitative and qualitative techniques and methods, including a Pugh Matrix and a House of Quality (HOQ) Matrix. This methodology identified Palisade's @Risk as the most applicable risk analysis software. Next, a risk analysis simulation model was built using the @Risk software. The model was then verified in two ways; first, by comparing simulation results with actual historical Westinghouse project data, and second, by constructing a similar model with Frontline System's Risk Solver, and then comparing the results from both simulation models. Both of these verification methods proved that the simulations produced by @Risk were accurate and repeatable. These results demonstrate that @Risk can be employed in conjunction with Microsoft Excel to produce a feasible project risk simulation system capable of assessing multiple-project risk. This report recommends that the system should be implemented. Accordingly, an implementation plan is featured, which details the resource requirements for the software system, including a $480,200 budget over a 24-month schedule.
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Walter Schroeder Library
Master's Theses
AC805 .H81 2011
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